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"Early Looks" Report - Week 8
Final Week: The RAS college football service will end at the completion of Week 8. I will be focusing on the upcoming college basketball season (first game is Nov 5) from that point forward.
Reminder: An "advanced notice" e-mail will now be sent out 45-60 minutes before any actual plays are released. This will hopefully allow everyone an easier opportunity to get best available lines at time of release. Any questions, comments, or suggestions regarding release times are welcomed.
Money Management: Money management is just as important to the success of a sports bettor as picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
*All lines current and widely available as of 4:45pm PST on Monday, October 15th, 2007.
| RAS "Early Looks" - Week 8 |
Northwestern (-9) vs Eastern Michigan - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #305-306 - Friday
Northwestern entered the season with good expectations and have positive momentum right now after back to back overtime wins at Michigan State and vs Minnesota. They did not play their best game last week vs the Gophers but were able to escape with a win. They are now 4-3 and can not afford a slip up here if they are to keep their bowl hopes alive. Eastern Michigan is not a good football team. They are 2-5 with wins coming at Northern Illinois with some luck and vs a very bad 1-AA Howard team. Last week they were pretty much dominated by a bad Ohio team despite what the 48-42 final score indicates. EMU was +4 in turnovers including an 80 yard fumble return, trailed 28-0 in the second quarter, scored a late meaningless TD, and never threatened to take a lead. In the comeback process they lost starting QB Andy Schmitt late in the game with a reoccurring shoulder injury. Early rumor is that Schmitt (officially questionable) will miss this game and be replaced by true freshman Kyle McMahon. Starting RG Khalid Walton (knee) is questionable this week as well. Defensively, starting senior DT Josh Hunt (elbow) was injured last week and is very questionable this week. He led the team in sacks last year. Starting FS Chris May (#5 tackler last year) has missed last 5 games and is out indefinitely. This game is not being played at EMU's home field but instead at Ford Field in Detroit. EMU does not draw well at all and despite being closer in proximity it is likely that Northwestern will have more fans at this game. Expect the Wildcats to outclass this lower level MAC team and win comfortably. Give the points.
RAS Added Look: Northwestern -9 1/2 UNIT |
Wyoming (+3) at Air Force - 11:00am Pacific - Game #329-330
The Cowboys are undervalued here due to a disappointing but misleading loss to New Mexico last week. The game was tied 3-3 and Wyoming had momentum before a 2+ hour weather delay. When play resumed New Mexico was the benefactor of three huge plays, a 63 yard touchdown pass, a fumble return for a touchdown, and a stop on 4th and 1 inside their own 15 yard line which all but decided the outcome. Wyoming is still having a solid season with a 4-2 record and are right in the thick of the MWC race. Air Force meanwhile is overvalued here after their second straight misleading win. The Falcons returned a fumble for a touchdown and picked off usually dependable CSU QB Hanie four times last week. Due to a successful rush attack, they only had five pass attempts the entire game vs CSU, but against Wyoming's tough run defense which is ranked 16th nationally, they will be forced to throw the ball much more often this week. Air Force struggled against their only other opponent with a comparable run defense (BYU #20) gaining just 231 total yards and losing 31-6. Air Force has now fired big three straight weeks and have played seven straight weeks without a BYE. The high altitude is a non-factor for Wyoming who plays at an even higher elevation. Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in this series. Good spot for a mild upset. Take the points.
RAS Early Look: Wyoming +3 1/2 UNIT |
Ball State at Western Michigan (+1.5) - 11:00am Pacific - Game #331-332
The Broncos share first place in the MAC West division at 2-0 and have the benefit of hosting both Ball State and Central Michigan this year. After three bad losses vs quality opponents, Western Michigan has regrouped to play very well in last four games. Their only recent blemish came two weeks ago vs Akron in a game they led most of the way but after a voluntary safety gave up a 89 yard free kick return as time expired to lose by 1. Their recent surge includes two road wins over division foes Toledo and Northern Illinois in impressive fashion. They beat NIU by just four last week but were in control most of the second half and if not for conservative play calling would have won by more. Sophomore QB Tim Hiller is really starting to hit his stride completing 68% of his passes in last four games with a 9 to 3 TD/INT ratio. WMU showed last week that they can win games ugly, something they have not done previously under Bill Cubit. There was a lot of hype surrounding Ball State after their narrow loss at Nebraska, but considering the Huskers two blowout losses since, that performance is not looking nearly as impressive as it did three weeks ago, yet Ball State is still getting much respect from oddsmakers. The Cardinals have already lost two MAC games, both at home. Last week they led by only 2 at halftime vs Western Kentucky. They are 9-19 in away games under Brady Hoke. Take the home dog.
RAS Early Look: Western Michigan +1.5 1/2 UNIT |
Kansas at Colorado (+4) - 2:45pm Pacific - Game #333-334
Colorado was due for a sub par performance and gave one last week at Kansas State. To their credit they did not play as poorly as the final score indicates. They finished with similar total yardage but -4 turnovers, a blocked punt for a TD, and a long TD run in garbage time led to a bad looking loss. The Buffs now return home where they have been outstanding this year. In Boulder they have outgained Florida State by 58, Miami Ohio by 495, and Oklahoma by 151 total yards. In addition to breaking in a freshman QB, the Colorado offense played their first two games without top RB Charles (hamstring) and good looking WR Josh Smith (surgery) who is able to stretch the field and now leads the team in receiving yards per game. Kansas has only one legitimate win on their resume, a turnover filled close win at Kansas State two weeks ago. In that game they had the benefit of a BYE week and KSU did not appear to play near their best game. Still KU has gone from a +3.5 road dog in that spot to a -4 road favorite here. I will need to see at least one more quality win from the Jayhawks before giving them that type of respect. Kansas is still just 3-20 in last 23 Big 12 road games. Last year's meeting was a close 20-15 Kansas win in Lawrence. The Buffaloes are a live home dog in this revenge spot.
RAS Early Look: Colorado +4 1/2 UNIT |
Idaho at New Mexico State (-9.5) - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #389-390
Rewind four weeks back and NMSU was 2-1 and tied at half at Auburn. Since then everything has gone downhill as they have been battered with injuries. Star QB Chase Holbrook suffered badly bruised ribs three weeks ago, tried to play at Boise State the following week and then did not dress in game last week at Louisiana Tech. He is expected to return to practice Wednesday and is likely to start vs Idaho. Once his availability is confirmed this line is sure to move up. The Aggies should have won outright as a +7.5 dog last week. They dominated Louisiana Tech for most of the game and led by 12 in the fourth quarter but just could not hold on. They were missing a total of six starters in the game, but all except one have a good chance of returning to play this week. Idaho's first year coach Robb Akey started from scratch this year as 19 players left the team in the offseason. They are 0-5 vs 1-A opponents this year and have been beaten soundly in every game. They have played last two without starting QB Nathan Enderle (surgery on throwing hand) who remains very doubtful again this week. Backup Brian Nooy has completed just 45.9% of his passes and has averaged only 106 passing yards in two starts and even those poor numbers are somewhat inflated. The Vandals had two fluke like long touchdown plays last week vs Fresno State and their only other touchdown came late in garbage time or else the 37-24 home loss would have been much worse. It is homecoming week for New Mexico State and after two bad losses I expect them to get their season back on track with a double digit win here. Give the points.
RAS Early Look: New Mexico State -9.5 1/2 UNIT |
| Situational Notes - Week 8 |
Teams with "look ahead" potential:
Clemson - Returns to league play vs Maryland next week after hosting Central Michigan.
Penn State - Host possible #1 Ohio State next week.
Oregon - Hosts USC next week.
South Carolina - Travels to Tennessee next week. |
Teams coming off big wins:
Navy - Won 2 OT thriller In Wednesday night ESPN game.
Wake Forest - Held off FSU in Thursday night prime time game.
Northwestern - Won in overtime thriller for second straight weekend.
Penn State - Finally put together a big effort with a 31 point win over ranked Wisconsin.
Kentucky - Knocked off #1 LSU in 3OT instant classic.
North Texas - Mean Green got first win of the season against Monroe.
LA Tech - Overcame 21-9 4th qtr deficit to rally past NMSU.
Louisville - Underachieving team broke through with big win at Cincinnati.
East Carolina - Won OT game at UTEP after scoring tying TD late in 4th.
Boise State - Avoided big upset with 4OT win over Nevada Sunday night..
Teams coming off big losses:
Pittsburgh - Disappointing season continues with 2 OT home loss to Navy.
San Jose State - Blew 14 point lead late in 4th qtr to Hawaii before losing in OT.
Central Florida - Lost to in state rival USF by 52.
Minnesota - Chance for Big 10 win lost after blown 14 point lead and 2OT's.
Iowa State - Humiliated by 53 points at home by Texas.
Illinois - Young team suffers first loss of season at Iowa.
Mississippi - Blew 4th qtr lead and chances of an upset against Alabama.
Nebraska - Embarrassing 31 point home loss to Oklahoma State.
Bowling Green - Lost by 33 in key MAC battle.
LSU - Lost #1 ranking as upset bug bit in Lexington.
Missouri - Let lead slip away and suffered first loss of season at OU.
Cincinnati - Undefeated season over with home loss to Louisville.
UTEP - After two straight thrilling last second wins, UTEP finally loses one to ECU in OT.
Nevada - Lost 69-67 4OT thriller at Boise State as 26 point underdog. |
Teams coming off BYE week:
Clemson
Maryland
NC State
West Virginia
UCLA
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Troy
Utah State |
Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
RightAngle Sports
Handicapper.net
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