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"Early Looks" Report - Week 7
Please note: Early official play 1 UNIT release below.
Reminder: An "advanced notice" e-mail will now be sent out 45-60 minutes before any actual plays are released. This will hopefully allow everyone an easier opportunity to get best available lines at time of release. Any questions, comments, or suggestions regarding release times are welcomed.
Money Management: Money management is just as important to the success of a sports bettor as picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
*All lines current and widely available as of 1:45pm PST on Monday, October 8th, 2007.
| RAS "Official Play" & "Early Looks" - Week 7 |
Army at Central Michigan (-11) - 12:30pm Pacific - Game #141-142
It took the Chippewas some time to adjust to a new coaching staff and recover from injury issues but they have clicked on all cylinders the past two weeks in double digit wins vs Northern Illinois and at Ball State. Due to ugly early season losses at Purdue, at Kansas, and vs 1-AA North Dakota State, oddsmakers have yet to catch up to this team. CMU has a dynamic offense led by sophomore QB Dan LeFevour who is easily the best at his position in the MAC and is likely to have an NFL career in his future. LeFevour passes with great accuracy and is a surprisingly elusive runner. 6-5 WR Bryan Anderson (1st team MAC as a freshman) is a big, talented target and speedy freshman walk-on Antonio Brown (#1 in receptions) has emerged from nowhere to be an impact player. Notre Dame transfer Justin Hoskins has filled in nicely at running back and the offensive line has been helped by the return of top man Eric Tunney who missed time early recovering from offseason injury. In recent weeks they have shown new offensive sets that have left opponents even more off balance as they have averaged a whopping 7.3 and 7.9 yards per play respectively in last two outings. Defensively CMU had been awful early in the season but finally have settled on a lineup and played much better two weeks ago before having by far their best performance of the season last week at Ball State. Tackle machine senior LB Red Keith has stepped up his leadership and has been a difference maker in recent games.
Army comes in off two straight home wins over very bad Temple and Tulane teams, but they were actually outgained by an average of 147.5 yards in the two games! They needed to hit a 36 yard deflected hail Mary type pass on final play of regulation to force OT vs Tulane last week. The Knights were down to their third string QB Kevin Dunn who had only thrown one pass in his career before the game. Second string QB Carson Williams was knocked out of the game with injury and first stringer David Peveto has missed last few games with a thumb injury. As of this writing it is not known which will play Saturday but no one looks like an attractive option. Earlier in the year Army was also taken to overtime by an awful 1-AA Rhode Island team. Army's struggling ground game (2.2ypc) is as bad as it has been since 2003 when the team went 0-13. After two straight wins, CMU should get good fan support this week and the school has been promoting this game as a "Sellout Saturday" which has drawn good crowds in the past. Expect the Chippewas to continue their recent momentum and beat Army by at least two touchdowns. Give the points. Many -10.5's available as of this writing.
RAS Official Play: Central Michigan -11 1 UNIT |
Western Michigan (-4) at Northern Illinois - 1:00pm Pacific - Game #157-158
The Broncos were believed by many to have the most returning talent in the MAC but got lost in the shuffle after three bad losses to West Virginia, Indiana, and Missouri to start the year which now does not look so bad considering the success all three opponents have had since then. They rebounded with big wins vs Central Conn State and Toledo before losing a heartbreaker vs Akron last week. WMU led by 7 and elected to take a safety with 15 seconds remaining but Akron returned the free kick 89 yards for a touchdown. The good news is that only games vs MAC West division opponents (Toldeo, CMU, NIU, BSU, EMU) count towards who plays in the MAC championship this year so the Broncos are still basically 1-0 and fully control their destiny. Starting QB Tim Hiller got off to somewhat of a slow start this year after sitting out last year with injury, but is coming off a career high 375 yard passing game. Free safety Louis Delmas, one of the leaders of the defense, missed two full games and parts of one other due to concussion issues but has returned healthy in last two games to give the unit a boost. Northern Illinois has been awful all season. They are 1-5 with losses to 1-AA Southern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, and Temple. The Huskies only win came at Idaho in a game they allowed 586 yards and only won thanks to 21 points resulting from a 95 yard int return, blocked punt, and fumble recovery in the end zone. NIU has been decimated with key season ending injuries on both sides of the ball. Last week two starting receivers missed the game with injury and starting QB Dan Nicholson left the game in the 4th quarter with an ankle injury. All three players are listed as questionable as of this writing. Expect the Broncos to rebound and get to 2-0 in the MAC West division. Give the points.
RAS Early Look: Western Michigan -4 1/2 UNIT |
Air Force at Colorado State (-3.5) - 2:30pm Pacific - Game #165-166
The Rams are now 0-5 and have lost 12 straight games dating back to last season. However, their only bad loss this year came last week vs San Diego State when they were upset as a double digit favorite which has allowed us to get extra value in this spot. In first four games the Rams played very competitively vs quality opponents Colorado, Cal, Houston, and TCU, coming just a few plays from going 4-0 ATS and 2-2 straight up. Last game vs SDSU was their first as a heavy favorite and they seemed to lack some intensity. Windy conditions slowed down the passing game which had been the strength of the offense coming in. Senior QB Caleb Hanie had been quietly having a very solid season and I expect him to bounce back and play well this week. The CSU defense has been weakened in recent weeks with the absence of starting free safety Klint Kubiak (ulcer) who has now missed three straight games, and starting strong safety Mike Pagnotta (ankle) has missed the last game and a half. Kubiak and Pagnotta were the top two returning tacklers on the team. There is a good chance at least one if not both will return this week. I have not been impressed with Air Force this year. Their win over UNLV last week was much closer than the final score indicates. UNLV had more total yards but were stopped at the goal line once in the first half and a botched punt setup an easy Air Force score in the second half. Two weeks ago Air Force failed to get the job done vs a banged up Navy defense despite it being the last chance for the senior class to beat the Midshipmen. Long time CSU head coach Sonny Lubick is very well liked by players and I expect them to rally in support of him with a solid performance and badly needed win this week. Give the points.
RAS Early Look: Colorado State -3.5 1/2 UNIT |
| Situational Notes - Week 7 |
Teams with "look ahead" potential:
Florida State - Faces longtime rival Miami, Fla in week 8.
Miami - Faces longtime rival FSU in week 8.
Rutgers - Hosts highly ranked South Florida next Thursday on ESPN.
South Florida - Goes on the road to Rutgers for Thursday ESPN game.
Illinois - Hosts always big game with Michigan next week after visit to Iowa.
Kansas - Travels to Colorado in Week 8 after facing lightweight Baylor.
Tennessee - Travels to Alabama next week.
Alabama - Hosts Tennessee next week. |
Teams coming off big wins:
Memphis - Won Tuesday night game following death of teammate.
Rice - Won at Southern Miss as a 20 point underdog.
Utah - Big win on the road on ESPN Friday night as 14 point dog at Louisville.
Northwestern - OT shootout win at Michigan State.
Kansas - Win on road at in state rival Kansas State keeps undefeated season alive.
Illinois - Second big win in a row as Illini beat Top 5 Wisconsin at home.
Temple - Broke losing streak by getting in the win column vs NIU.
Buffalo - Big 21 point home win over last years MAC runner up Ohio.
Wyoming - Beat MWC power TCU at home in close game.
Miami (OH) - Unexpected road win over Kent State.
Oklahoma - Won red river shootout by a TD over Texas.
San Diego State - Broken into MWC win column with road win over CSU.
Virginia Tech - Impressive 18 point win over Clemson on the road.
Stanford - Unthinkable win as 40 point underdog at USC.
Army - Used last second TD and OT to beat Tulane
Akron - Used kickoff lateral play to beat WMU in closing seconds.
ECU - Beat UCF at home in big conference game.
Notre Dame - Finally got one in the W column with a 14 point victory at UCLA.
Cincinnati -Passed first true road test with victory at Rutgers.
LSU - Used 14 pt 4th qtr to beat Florida by 4.
UTEP - For second straight week won in waning seconds over Tulsa.
Teams coming off big losses:
Southern Miss - Bad loss at home on ESPN as 20 point favorite to Rice.
Michigan State - Lost wild shootout in OT to Northwestern.
Kansas State - Lost at home to in state rival Kansas.
Wisconsin - Win streak broken at Illinois.
Texas - Hung tough with Oklahoma in rivalrly game
USC - Undefeated season and home win streak up in smoke as 40 point favorite.
MTSU - Last second FG squashed chances of upset of ACC school.
Tulane - Blew 10 point 4th qtr lead and gave up TD on last play of regulation and lost in OT.
Florida - Lost 10 point 4th qtr lead to lose chance of upset at LSU.
Tulsa - Wild game saw 37 pts in 4th before they lost by 1 on final possesion. |
Teams coming off BYE week:
Connecticut
Pittsburgh
Navy
BYU
New Mexico
California
Oregon
Washington |
Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
RightAngle Sports
Handicapper.net
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