| CURRENT SEASON RECORD |
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| EARLY LOOKS RECAP |
Kansas State -3 (unchanged)
Tulsa -3 (unchanged)
UL Monroe +3 (now +2.5)
UL Lafayette -6.5
(now -8)
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RAS "Official Plays" Report - Week 6
Last update Friday before 1:00pm Pacific with possible additional plays.
Line Movement: Through first five weeks, RAS plays are beating the closing line by an average of +1.80 points. It is advised to place wagers as early as possible.
Money Management: Money management is more important to the success of a sports bettor than picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
*Lines current and widely available as of 4:00pm Pacific on Thursday.
| RAS "Official Plays" - Week 6 |
Bowling Green at Boston College (Over 57) - 9:00am Pacific - Game #329-330
First year coach Jeff Jagodzinski has delivered on his promise to open up the Eagles passing game. Boston College threw 50.7% of the time a year ago but this year are passing on 57.7% of snaps despite a 5-0 record and leading throughout most games. All ACC senior QB Matt Ryan is completing 61% of his passes and averaging 309 passing yards per game. The Eagles lost two defensive stalwarts before the season began, projected starting DT BJ Raji (tied for team lead in tackles for loss) and LB Brian Toal (led team in tackles per game). An easy schedule has left the defense untested. Four opponents BC has faced have an average national scoring offense rank of 80, and the fifth opponent was 1-AA rival UMass. The four 1-A opponents also had an above average national scoring defense rank of 44 which has been condusive for lower scoring games and is why there is extra value in this play. Bowling Green comes in with the 28th ranked scoring offense and 78th ranked scoring defense in the nation, meaning they will have one of the best offenses and worst defenses that Boston College has faced this season.
Bowling Green is also passing considerably more frequently this year. Last season they passed just 40.8% of the time but this year are passing a whopping 68.4% of snaps. The Falcons have received surprisingly strong play from first year starting QB Tyler Sheehan who most did not think would even win the starting job in the offseason. Sheehan has completed 66.8% of his passes and is averaging 326 passing yards per game. This was accomplished while playing two road games at Minnesota and at Michigan State with top WR Corey Partridge missing the better part of 7 quarters due to an ankle injury. Last week the Falcons experimented with what they call their "fastball" offense on three possessions. In this scheme they go into a no-huddle hurry up in an attempt to get defenses off balance. It is likely they will use this again this week at some point. Defensively, Bowling Green is giving up over 400 yards a game, including over 200 on the ground. In last two games they have given up 58 points to Temple and 1-AA foe Western Kentucky. Starting NG Nick Davis (knee) left last game and is doubtful, back up NG Michael Ream was recently suspended indefinitely, and reserve DE John Schaefer is out with an ankle injury. True freshman Nick Torresso is expected to see extended playing time on the defensive line this week. Since 2002 Bowling Green games have averaged 61.08 points. Expect this game to get into the 60's. Play the over.
RAS Official Play: Over 57 2 UNITS |
Fresno State at Nevada (Under 54.5) - 1:00pm Pacific - Game #363-364
Last year with a proven senior QB, RB, and WR, Nevada games only averaged 49.3ppg. This year the Wolfpack have much more unproven weapons but are averaging 61.2ppg. That number is clearly misleading. Nebraska racked up 52 points in mistake filled season opener, 16 points were scored in final 3:38 at Northwestern, 69 points were scored vs bad 1-AA opponent Nichols State, and last week vs UNLV 21 points were scored in final 3:03. In addition, 1st team WAC and NFL prospect LB Ezra Butler has missed two of four games due to suspension and injury. He returned to lead the team with 10 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss vs UNLV last week. First year starting QB Nick Graziano is completing just over 50% of his passes, a farcry from last year's 64.7% mark set by now graduated Jeff Rowe. Nevada is still running the ball 53.6% of the time despite come from behind efforts in two games. Meanwhile the defense returned seven starters and now at full strength is underrated. Expect this team to revert back to last year's scoring averages or below soon.
Fresno State games averaged 51.3ppg last year, but key injuries have left them crippled on offense making it difficult to surpass last year's production. After two very high scoring games vs Oregon and Texas A&M to start the season Fresno played a 17-6 game vs Louisiana Tech last week that featured just 544 yards of total offense combined. Already without two offensive line starters and top returning receiver Chastin West, opposite starting WR Marlon Moore left last week's game with an ankle injury and is very questionable for this game. According to coaches Moore was the last remaining receiver who knew responsibilities at multiple lineup positions. Fresno's offense was coming off a very down year to begin with and head coach Pat Hill is often criticized for conservative playcalling. This year is no different as the Bulldog's have run on 60% of plays. Junior QB Tom Brandstater (55% completions vs 1-A opponents) has still not shaken off the inconsistency that plagued him last season. The score of this game will have trouble getting out of the 40's. Play the under.
RAS Official Play: Under 54.5 1 UNIT |
UAB at Mississippi State (Under 50) - 11:00am Pacific - Game #341-342
The Bulldogs are never going to be a consistently high scoring team. They run the ball over 60% of the time and currently have serious injury issues at QB. Third string freshman Wesley Carroll is expected to start this week with starter Michael Henig (missed last two games with hand injury) expected to be available in a limited role. Carroll is just 13-for-29 on the season. Facing a UAB defense that has been more than generous vs the run, the Bulldogs figure to keep the ball on the ground at even a higher rate than normal. Even with a 59 total point game vs South Carolina that was full of short field scoring drives and a 55 total point game vs Tulane that was boosted by an interception runback and two short touchdown drives, MSU games are averaging 47.6ppg on the season, up from just 44.2ppg a year ago. Mississippi State hosts a big game vs Tennessee following this. Expect them to keep things close to the vest and get this game over with as quickly as possible.
UAB's defense was shell shocked in opener at Michigan State and played without defensive leader safety Will Dunbar (suspension) who now leads the nation in tackles per game. The result was 73 total points scored. Last week they played one of the fastest tempo and highest scoring teams in the nation in Tulsa and the result was 68 total points scored. Their other two games averaged just 40ppg, and that was helped by an interception return vs Florida State. This week they could be without Joseph Webb, their backup QB who is second on the team in rushing and far and away their best receiver. Webb is listed as questionable with a knee injury. Even if he does give it a go, he is likely to be less than 100%. This is a huge blow to the UAB offense. Last year these two played to a 10-10 tie through regulation. With both offenses limited by injuries and not very potent to begin with, expect this to be a lower scoring game than oddsmakers are projecting. Play the under.
RAS Official Play: Under 50 1 UNIT |
Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
RightAngle Sports
Handicapper.net
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