| CURRENT SEASON RECORD |
| Official Plays: |
6-6 |
| Early Looks: |
9-7 |
| Overall: |
15-13 +1.05 UNITS |
|
| NEXT E-MAIL UPDATE |
| *Next subscriber update (Official Plays) will be before THURSDAY at NOON Pacific. If you do not receive an update by this time, please e-mail us immediately so it can be resent. |
RAS NCAA Football - "Early Looks" Report - Week 6
Money Management: Money management is just as important to the success of a sports bettor as picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
NOTE: There will be no plays on the Tuesday or Wednesday night games.
*All lines current and widely available as of 11:25am PST on Monday, October 1st, 2007.
| RAS "Early Looks" - Week 6 - Four Plays |
Kansas at Kansas State (-3) - 9:00am Pacific - Game #345-346
Kansas State has won 6 of their last 8 regular season games. Two of those wins have come vs Texas, both with the Longhorns ranked in the top 10, including a 41-21 win in Austin last week. When KSU beat Texas last year it was a marquee win that clinched a bowl bid for them. They turned around the following week and lost at Kansas in a letdown situation 39-20, but six turnovers led to 30 Jayhawk points including an INT runback and four scoring drives less than 25 yards. This year the Wildcats are at home, had a BYE prior to Texas game, and will be better prepared to avoid a letdown. Kansas State's only loss this year came at Auburn where they led into the 4th quarter and played well enough to win. Sophomore QB Josh Freeman is completing 61.8% of his passes and WR Jordy Nelson has emerged as one of the top receivers in the Big 12. Kansas coach Mangino was quoted as saying he "didn't have the hips" to be a defensive back as to why he didn't recruit Nelson. Kansas State's defense kept Texas in check despite playing without top secondary man FS Marcus Watts who was a late scratch due to wrist and shoulder injuries. Being that he was in uniform there is a good chance he will be back healthy for this game. Kansas has rolled through their early season schedule but have not faced anything close to a quality opponent yet. They have played two overrated and defensively ravaged MAC teams in Central Michigan and Toledo, a bad 1-AA team in SE Louisiana, and a Sunbelt team who didn't win a game last year in Florida International. The Jayhawks are just 2-22 in Big 12 road games under Mangino. It is unlikely they have improved enough this year to beat a quality opponent on the road. Give the points.
RAS Early Look: Kansas State -3 1/2 UNIT |
Tulsa (-3) at UTEP - 6:05pm Pacific - Game #391-392
Tulsa's new offense has easily exceeded expectations through the first four games. With a new coaching staff and only 4 returning starters, the unit was a question mark before the season. Senior QB Paul Smith has been a great playmaker. He comes into this game with 1444 passing yards and an efficiency rating of 174.96. The all new group of receivers made up of mostly freshman and JC transfers has looked surprisingly impressive. RB Tarrion Adams provides some balance with his 108.5 rushing yards per game and solid 5.5ypc average. Tulsa is coming off a 38-30 win over UAB last week but the game was not near as close as the score indicates. Tulsa had a whopping 292 more total yards and led by 22 with 12 minutes to play despite what was described as a sub par game for QB Smith and the entire team. Secondary starters CB Roberts and FS Duncan sat the game out healing injuries but are expected to be available vs UTEP. The Miners trailed at SMU by as many as 21, by 14 in the 4th quarter, and never led until a touchdown in overtime for a 3 point win. The Miner's got it done with a successful ground game, but are still not getting consistent play from first year starting redshirt freshman QB Trevor Vittatoe. Tulsa will hold a significant edge at the QB position in this game. UTEP is allowing over 500 total yards per game vs 1-A opponents. Both starting cornerbacks are still out indefinitely and true freshman are seeing significant time on the defensive line due to injuries. For the second straight week the UTEP defense will be on the field for a lot of plays and they are going to have a nightmare trying to stop Tulsa's uptempo pass happy offense. Give the points.
RAS Early Look: Tulsa -3 1/2 UNIT |
Arkansas State at UL Monroe (+3) - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #399-400
UL Monroe played better than looked last week at league favorite Troy losing 24-7. The Warhawks held Troy far below their season scoring and total yard averages despite having an interception returned for a touchdown. They also failed to convert a 1st and goal from the 1 on their second possession of the game. A touchdown would have given them the lead and changed the complexion of the game. ULM's first three losses came vs quality opponents Tulsa, Clemson, and Texas A&M. Despite a relatively tough schedule, RB Calvin Dawson ranks 5th in the country in rushing yards and has an impressive 6.0ypc average. The Warhawks had a BYE week prior to Troy game so they are still relatively fresh. ULM is now 0-4 but has a favorable remaining schedule so bowl hopes are still in tact, but this is a must win game. Arkansas State is coming off an emotional stretch of games at Texas, vs SMU, at Tennessee, and vs Memphis. They rallied from a 31-6 halftime deficit to beat Memphis last week and potentially are in a letdown situation this week. One local news columnist quoted that ASU is "limping" into Sunbelt play. ASU top cover corner senior Darren Toney has missed last two games and is doubtful to play this week. Top RB Reggie Arnold left last game with a bad ankle injury and is very questionable this week. Arkansas State is just 8-26 on the road under Steve Roberts. Look for the Warhawks to get a mild upset in their conference home opener. Take the points.
RAS Early Look: UL Monroe +3 1/2 UNIT |
North Texas at UL Lafayette (-6.5) - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #401-402
The Ragin' Cajuns are 0-5 but are actually a much better team than they look on paper. They played competitively at South Carolina in season opener easily covering the +30 spread. They outgained Ohio by over 100 yards and led by 10 at half. Their loss to 1-AA McNeese State (would be 3rd best team in Sun Belt via Sagarin ratings) is not bad considering they are ranked #6 in the country and it is a historically big instate rivalry game. They led Troy by as many as 14 and played competitively until late interception runback. Last week they played at UCF without starting center Fisher, all conference RB Fenroy, and starting LB Risher. Head coach Bustle said he hopes to have all three back starting this week for what he called a "pivotal" conference game. North Texas has been horrid all season. The Mean Green expected growing pains on offense, but with 10 returning starters on defense no one expected them to rank dead last nationally in both yards and points allowed. Adjusting to new schemes and injury woes have caused many of last year's defensive leaders to be non-factor's. In addition, the pass happy uptempo offense leaves the defense on the field far too much and in too many bad situations. UNT may also have a QB controversy brewing as true freshman Giovanni Vizza has already burned his redshirt and has looked decent in mop up duty. ULL will control this game with their strong running attack (5.3ypc including sacks) and with a lot of scoring expected it is less likely the pointspread will come into play. Give the points.
RAS Early Look: UL Lafayette -6.5 1/2 UNIT |
| Situational Notes - Week 5 |
Teams with "look ahead" potential:
Wake Forest - Hosts Florida State next week after facing Duke this week.
Michigan - Faces lightweight EMU before playing Purdue next week.
Texas Tech - Faces Texas A&M next week after facing Iowa State this week.
Central Florida - Will travel to in state rival USF next week after facing ECU this week. |
Teams coming off big wins:
Arkansas State - Rallied from 25 point halftime deficit to beat Memphis.
South Florida - Biggest win in school history over WVU on Thursday night.
Illinois - Defeated nationally ranked Penn State for biggest win of Zook era.
Indiana - Notched upset conference road win at Iowa.
Colorado - Huge win over Oklahoma as 22 point underdog.
California - Road win over Oregon in battle of top ranked teams.
UTEP - Overcame 21 point deficit to beat SMU In OT.
Auburn - Huge road victory in the swamp as 17 point dogs.
Teams coming off big losses:
Memphis - Blew 25 point halftime lead at Arkansas State.
Rutgers - Hopes of unbeaten season erased in home loss to Maryland.
West Virginia - National title hopes dashed in loss at USF.
Oklahoma - National title hopes took major hit with loss at Colorado.
Oregon - Lost 4th quarter lead against Cal and dropped from unbeaten ranks.
SMU - Blew several leads before losing in OT in must win game to remain bowl eligible.
Oregon State - Led most of game until giving up 28 pts in 4th quarter to UCLA.
Houston - Lost C-USA opener vs ECU after missing late FG and statistically dominating.
Florida - Unbeaten season down the tubes after losing to Auburn. |
Teams coming off BYE week:
Wake Forest
Kanasas
Missouri
Marshall
Rice
Wyoming
Tennessee |
Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
RightAngle Sports
Handicapper.net
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