| CURRENT SEASON RECORD |
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| EARLY LOOKS RECAP |
Kent State +2 (now -1.5)
SMU -1 (now -1.5)
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| NEXT E-MAIL UPDATE |
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RAS "Official Plays" Report - Week 5
Official Play Total(s) to be released Friday: Totals will be released Friday between 9:00am and 12 noon Pacific.
Line Movement: Through first four weeks, RAS plays are beating the closing line by an average of +1.72 points. It is advised to place wagers as early as possible.
Money Management: Money management is more important to the success of a sports bettor than picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
*No plays for Thursday or Friday games.
*Lines below current and widely available as of 9:35am Pacific on Thursday.
| RAS "Official Plays" - Week 4 |
UCLA at Oregon State (-2) - 3:30pm Pacific - Game #137-138
The Beavers actually played well enough to win outright as a +12 dog last week at Arizona State. Oregon State gained 120 more total yards and notched 9 more first downs. They led by 19 in the first half and by 13 in the second half, but in the end could not overcome six offensive turnovers, including five interceptions. Arizona State started four second half scoring drives in Beaver territory, and a fifth at their own 40 resulting in 31 second half points. In QB Sean Canfield's defense, at least two interceptions were not his fault, and outside of the turnovers he has shown solid improvement from week to week. Head coach Mike Riley has expressed full confidence in Canfield and he has played well at home this season. Oregon State's 514 total yards were 300 more than ASU's first three opponents had averaged entering the game. Star receiver Sammie Stroughter had missed first game and played sparingly in second game after missing much of fall camp with personal issues. He has gone over 100 yards receiving in last two games. The Beaver offensive line has been improving and is arguably coming off their best game of the season. Oregon State's defense ranks #1 in the Pac-10 overall and #2 nationally in run defense allowing just 29.5ypg on the ground. This is important to note because UCLA will be relying heavily on their running game this week.
The Bruins have QB issues. Junior Patrick Cowan led UCLA to three straight wins at the end of last season including the monumental victory over USC, but coaches named Ben Olson the starter in the Spring. Olson played well vs rebuilding Stanford in week 1, but in next two games completed just 48.5% of his passes with 4 interceptions and 0 touchdowns. His mobility is also an issue (-75 rushing yards) and UCLA has already allowed a Pac-10 high 9 sacks. Cowan started for Olson (headaches) last week and the team rallied behind him for a solid win over Washington but a new injury will sideline him for 3-4 weeks, leaving Olson to start this week at Oregon State. The UCLA offense has struggled at times adjusting to new coordinator Jay Norvell who has never called plays at this level. Olson may still not be 100% this week and they will have to protect him well with no adequate backup available. Olson is 1-2 in road starts with lone win coming this year vs Stanford as a big favorite. Injuries are not helping UCLA's cause. Top offensive lineman Shannon Tevega (knee), #2 WR Marcus Everett (ankle), and third down receiver Gavin Ketchum (ankle) are not expected to play this week. On defense UCLA ranks last in the Pac-10 in pass defense. They are expected to return two starters to the lineup, but are still without starting DT Brigham Harwell (knee). UCLA has not visited Corvallis since 2002 meaning no Bruin has ever seen the field here. UCLA is just 2-7 in their last 9 road games. Oregon State is 40-11 at home since 1999. Expect the Beavers to get a key conference win. Give the points.
RAS Official Play: Oregon State -2 1 UNIT
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East Carolina at Houston (-10.5) - 4:00pm - Game #169-170
Not only did Houston rally from a 17-3 deficit to pull away and beat a decent Colorado State team last week but they found themselves a keeper at QB in the process. Redshirt freshman Case Keenum entered the game in the second quarter and ended up throwing for two touchdowns and running for two others leading his team on a 35-10 run. He finished 18-for-22 while exhibiting quick feet, elusiveness, and a nice looking arm. Head coach Art Briles had been keeping his QB rotation top secret through first three games, but uncharacteristically declared this week that Keenum is now their guy. Establishing the QB position was critical for this team as they already possess an explosive group of receivers and backs as well as one of the conferences best offensive lines. Houston's defense has improved each of the last four years and returned seven starters. They have good talent with three players earning C-USA honors last year and four others having transferred in from BCS conference schools. They have put up decent numbers in the early going. Despite inexperience at QB and -4 turnovers, Houston gave Oregon (now ranked #11) a good scare on the road in week 1. Houston had more first downs and total yards than the Ducks, and the game was tied in the third quarter.
East Carolina was demolished last week at West Virginia as they gained just 29 yards of total offense in the first half and lost 48-7. They did not score until the final minute vs Mountaineer reserves. It is not a big surprise for ECU to give up a lot of points but it is alarming that their offense was so futile against a West Virginia defense that has not been special. East Carolina has played a very demanding schedule, particularly for a middle of the pack C-USA team. The Pirates visited Virginia Tech on their emotional opening day and lost a close game, then hosted instate rival North Carolina and won on a last second field goal in week 2, then hosted perennial C-USA contender Southern Miss and lost a seesaw game on a late touchdown in week 3, before playing at #3 West Virginia last week. Now they must play their second straight road game vs defending C-USA champ Houston. This might be overwhelming for a young rebuilding team trying to overcome injuries and disguise weaknesses in their offensive line and secondary. A QB controversy may also be in the works as preseason projected starter Rob Kaas saw his first action last week since a DUI suspension before the season opener. ECU head coach Holtz said either Kaas or Pinkney (last 3 starts) could play at any time from this point on. ECU's lone win on the season was vs North Carolina who has yet to beat a Division 1-A team. Houston is 8-3 ATS as a home favorite since 2005 and has won six straight C-USA home games by an average margin of 21 points. Give the points.
RAS Official Play: Houston -10.5 1 UNIT |
Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
RightAngle Sports
Handicapper.net
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