| CURRENT SEASON RECORD |
|
| EARLY LOOKS RECAP |
BYU -9 (now -11)
Colorado -12.5 (now -14)
Click here for write-ups. |
| NEXT E-MAIL UPDATE |
| *Next subscriber update (Official Play Report) will be on FRIDAY before NOON Pacific. If you do not receive an update by this time, please e-mail us immediately so it can be resent. |
RAS "Official Plays" Report - Week 4
EARLY UPDATE: Two official plays below are being released a day earlier than usual in hope to preserve line value. I may still have additional play(s) on next update Friday morning.
Line Movement: Of sixteen plays released thus far, thirteen have seen line movement in the direction RAS recommended, while three have gone unchanged. It is advised to place wagers as early as possible.
Money Management: Money management is more important to the success of a sports bettor than picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
*No plays for Thursday or Friday games.
*Lines below current and widely available as of 10:52am Pacific on Thursday.
| RAS "Official Plays" - Week 4 |
New Mexico State at Auburn (Over 51.5) - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #363-364
New Mexico State simply led the nation in plays ran last year at 77.5 per game. Their last 12 games vs division 1-A teams have averaged 64 total points in regulation time. With this season's new kickoff and timing rule changes that number could easily go up. The Aggies have 10 returning starters on offense and are now well versed in the third year of Hal Mumme's no-huddle pass happy offense. I have a new respect for junior QB Chase Holbrook after recently watching him on tape. He put up huge numbers last year and appears poised for another big season. He has good size (6'5") and his arm is both strong and accurate. New Mexico State was very unlucky to score just 29 on UTEP last week as they missed two short field goals and were intercepted once in the end zone. They have racked up 1020 yards of offense in last two games vs decent defenses in UTEP and New Mexico. This team scored 28 points on Boise State last year and is capable of scoring in the 20-28 point range vs Auburn. NMSU is a mess on the other side of the ball where they have not been good for over a decade. They have given up over 34ppg vs last 12 1-A opponents despite playing in the WAC. They like to blitz and gamble often which increases opportunities for big plays, yet they still rarely are able to get to the QB (average 1 sack per game in last 12 vs 1-A teams). NMSU shuffled their secondary last week starting Vince Butler at CB, but he left in the second half with a concussion and is doubtful vs Auburn. A walk-on freshman replaced him.
This is a great opportunity for Auburn's struggling offense to turn things around. They rank last in the nation in turnovers with 12 already this year but will face a NMSU team that is -37 in turnover ratio in 27 games under Hal Mumme. Fifth year senior QB Brandon Cox is now getting competition from true freshman QB Kodi Burns who sparked the team with two TD drives in last game. Burns adds a new dimension to the offense with his running ability. Both quarterbacks will see action this week and both should find success against a generous New Mexico State defense. Look for Auburn to build confidence by establishing the running game early which will eventually lead to successful down the field throws. Special teams and turnovers will likely setup the offense for easy scoring opportunities. With the offense taking the bulk of the blame for last two losses the unit will be very focused this week. In fact coaches banned fans and media from Tuesday's practice for the first time all season. Defensively, Auburn's secondary has been a bit of a concern in the early going and they will be tested all game long. LB's Tray Blackmon (ankle) & Merrill Johnson (shoulder) are expected to miss the game with injuries. Last year NMSU games had an average posted game total of 60.65 and they still went over 7 out of 10. With this year's kickoff and timing rules, no New Mexico State game should have a total this low, regardless of opponent. Play the over.
RAS Official Play: Over 51.5 1 UNIT
|
Florida Atlantic at North Texas (Over 56.5) - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #393-394
Oddsmakers are having a tough time adjusting to North Texas's new style. UNT's first two games have averaged 82.5 total points. They have not yet played a quarter with fewer than 14 points scored in it. The no-huddle pass happy spread offense called "Dodgeball" after first year coach Todd Dodge put up a school record 601 passing yards in last game vs SMU. In comparison even Texas Tech only put up 473 in earlier meeting at SMU this season. North Texas also ran a whopping 85 plays vs SMU and put the ball in the air over 75% of the time. UNT is coming off a BYE week which they used to further fine tune their new system. Defensively, UNT has been torched for a ton of yards and points in their first two games. The unit has been hurt by injuries and defections in the secondary and have struggled to learn new schemes. North Texas games have every reason to continue to light up the scoreboard.
Florida Atlantic surprised a lot of people by unleashing a new uptempo spread offense of their own last week in upset over Big 10 foe Minnesota. The Owls ran 85 plays and racked up 580 total yards, by far surpassing their averages in first two games. QB Rusty Smith set a school record with 463 passing yards. The team reportedly worked on the passing game and hurry-up offense for a good portion of Wednesday's practice making it likely they will employ a similar strategy Saturday vs UNT. FAU coach Howard Schnellenberger could not rely much on pass offense in first two games due to severe lack of WR depth due to injuries, suspensions, and personal leave of absence. They only had three scholarship receivers in uniform two games ago vs Oklahoma State. Starting WR Cortez Gent returned from a one game absence to rack up a team high 109 receiving yards vs Minnesota and projected starting WR Chad Wilkes (hamstring) is expected to see his first action of the season Saturday. FAU's defense was supposed to be a strength this year but they have allowed over 31ppg and nearly 400ypg thus far. Starting safety Kris Bartels (shoulder) missed last game but has returned to practice this week and might play. Shoddy special teams have not helped FAU, they have already given up a kickoff and punt return for touchdowns. Oddsmakers have posted 14 totals at 59.5 or higher this week. This is one they missed. UNT's no-huddle pass happy attack is no secret but even the possibility that FAU may show some more no huddle of their own makes this a must play over.
RAS Official Play: Over 56.5 1 UNIT |
Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
RightAngle Sports
Handicapper.net
© 2007. No part of this newsletter may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means,
electronic or mechanical, without the permission of the publisher. |