| CURRENT SEASON RECORD |
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| EARLY LOOKS RECAP |
North Carolina -3 (unchanged)
Ohio State -3.5 (unchanged)
Wyoming +13.5 (now +12)
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RAS "Official Plays" Report - Week 3
FINAL UPDATE: No additional plays for Week 3.
Line Movement: Of sixteen plays released thus far, thirteen have seen line movement in the direction RAS recommended, while three have gone unchanged. It is advised to place wagers as early as possible.
Money Management: Money management is more important to the success of a sports bettor than picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
*Lines current and widely available as of 8:35am Pacific on Thursday.
| RAS "Official Plays" - Week 3 |
BYU at Tulsa (Over 48) - 6:00pm Pacific - Game #179-180
New offensive coordinator Gus Malzhan has installed an uptempo no-huddle spread offense at Tulsa. Unlike last year at Arkansas, Malzhan has full support from his head coach and it will not be long before the scoreboards get lit up. The offense is designed to score quickly and get in as many plays as possible. Coaches will even go as far as to lobby officials to get the ball spotted and ready for play quickly after each down. It does not hurt that Tulsa returns an all conference three year starter in senior QB Paul Smith to run the show. The Golden Hurricane ran 86 plays (2005 NCAA average was 70.6) in their season opener, racking up 35 points and 523 total yards while playing conservatively with a big lead late. This is despite only four returning starters on offense and playing their first ever game in the new system. They since have had a BYE week to fine tune things and should be ready to roll this week in home opening revenge situation vs BYU. The Tulsa defense lost four of their top five tacklers from last season and were scorched for 49 points by the BYU offense last year. Fortunately for them, they faced a one dimensional offense vs UL Monroe in season opener but will face a much more difficult task vs BYU's balanced offense this week.
Everyone expected a significant dropoff in BYU's offensive production this year with the loss of QB John Beck, top four receivers, and top RB, but the offense has looked solid so far despite facing what could be two top 25 defenses in Arizona and UCLA. New QB Max Hall is getting rave reviews for his play and has already passed for 679 yards and 4 touchdowns in first two games. BYU is averaging 415 yards of total offense, but only 18.5ppg due to turnovers, penalties, and other bad breaks stalling drives in or near the red zone. They are likely to breakout here against a much weaker defense than what they have seen thus far. BYU lost a starting defensive lineman and starting safety to season ending injuries in fall camp as well as a reseve safety who was scheduled to move into a starting role. So far the defense has performed well above expectations but they have had some favorable circumstances. Arizona was playing their first game in a new offensive system on the road, and UCLA played very conservatively after jumping out to a 20-0 lead. Last year's meeting between these two saw 73 points scored. With Tulsa's uptempo style both teams will get even more opportunities this year, so even if these two good QB's do not match last years offensive efficiency, the scoring should still easily get into the fifties. Play the over.
RAS Official Play: Over 48 2 UNITS |
UTEP (+6) at New Mexico State - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #175-176
The Miners went 16-6 in 2004 & 2005 but are somewhat under the radar this year after an underacheiving 5-7 season in 2006. Redshirt freshman QB Trever Vittatoe, the biggest question mark on this year's squad, is coming along nicely. He has gone up against two difficult defenses in his first two starts, vs New Mexico and at Texas Tech. His numbers have not been spectacular, but has not made any mistakes (0 interceptions), and showed marked improvement from game one to game two. Against NMSU he will face by far the easiest defense he has seen to date. Vittatoe is surrounded by a top notch group of receivers that boasts two Florida State transfers in Lorne Sam and Fred Rouse, along with mainstay senior Joe West. Two Pac-10 transfers man the tailback position, most notably hard running senior Marcus Thomas who sat out the season opener due to a one game suspension. The offensive line is much improved as evidenced by the 215 yards gained (4.7ypc) on the ground vs Texas Tech last week. Last year the team's season high was 135 vs Tulane and they averaged 2.4ypc for the season. UTEP was actually tied with Texas Tech going into the 4th quarter as a +25 point underdog and are now 2-0 ATS. Before the season head coach Mike Price said he was not concerned about his defense despite its inexperience. So far they have already performed above expectations. They held New Mexico to just 6 points in the season opener leading to an outright win and kept Texas Tech's high powered offense under wraps for three quarters. The return of defensive leader LB Jeremy Jones from injury last year (13 tackles in season opener vs New Mexico) has been a major positive.
New Mexico State is playing the favorite role for just the fourth time since Hal Mumme's arrival in 2005. The Aggies are just 2-21 vs Division 1-A opponents under Mumme. While some improvement is expected this year this team has no business being a significant favorite against a quality opponent. The Aggies are coming off a 10 point loss to instate rival New Mexico, the same team who lost to UTEP in week one. Aggie QB Chase Holbrook is off to a slow start having already thrown five interceptions this year (9 all of last year). In opening game the offense was able to put up just 28 points (defense added another score) vs 1-AA SE Louisiana who only returned three defensive starters. Defensively, NMSU has been awful for years and are replacing four of their top six tacklers from last year. They gave up 44 points and 496 yards to a New Mexico offense that was inept in week 1 vs UTEP. Last year NMSU allowed 34.1ppg vs 1-A opponents. Las Cruces is only a 40 minute drive from El Paso. If past years are any indication close to half of the fans in attendance will be supporting the road team making the home field advantage very minor. There is a good chance the wrong team is favored all together here. Take the points.
RAS Official Play: UTEP +6 1 UNIT
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Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
RightAngle Sports
Handicapper.net
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