| CURRENT SEASON RECORD |
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| EARLY LOOKS RECAP |
Temple -3 (now -3.5)
Colorado State +15 (now +14)
East Carolina -3.5 (now -5)
BYU +8.5 (now +7.5)
Click here for write-ups. |
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RAS "Official Plays" Report - Week 2
About this update: The RAS "Official Play " Report is released each Thursday and Friday morning. The report will include 1-4 plays with more detailed analysis rated at 1 to 2 UNITS per play. The emphasis of this report is on selectivity and high win percentage.
Line Movement: Of ten plays released thus far, eight have seen line movement in the direction RAS recommended, while two have gone unchanged. It is advisable to place wagers as early as possible.
Money Management: Money management is more important to the success of a sports bettor than picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
*All lines current and widely available as of 8:00am PST on Friday, September 7, 2007.
| RAS "Official Plays" - Week 2 - Three Plays |
Miami Ohio at Minnesota (Under 50) - 9:00am Pacific - Game #317-318
First year head coach Tim Brewster is attempting to transform the Gopher offense from a ground oriented attack into a combination spread/west coast style offense. After getting shutout in the first half of the season opener vs Bowling Green, Brewster changed his strategy and kept the ball on the ground 34 of 45 plays after halftime saying afterwards "We're going to be a physical, running football team." Only 48 points were scored in regulation despite facing a defensively challenged Bowling Green team that likes to line up with five wideouts and throw the ball around. That type of attack was a bad matchup for Minnesota's suspect secondary, but this week Minnesota's strong front seven will be on display against a team who's offensive strength is running the football, not passing it. Gopher starting QB Adam Weber, a redshirt freshman, finished just 15 of 31 with 2 interceptions in an unimpressive debut and at one point in the first half was close to getting replaced. Earlier this week, head coach Brewster announced some reshuffling on an unsettled offensive line which may further hinder the offense's progress.
Miami Ohio scored a touchdown with 17 seconds left to beat Ball State 14-13 in a low scoring affair last week. Redhawk starting QB Mike Kokal completed 14 of 24 passes for just 118 yards and threw 2 interceptions. Kokal seldom threw downfield in the game with his longest pass going to RB Brandon Murphy for 17 yards. This versus a Ball State team not known for strong defense. The return of a healthy Murphy was the bright spot for Miami, as he rushed for 135 yards as the focal point of the offense. The Redhawks will also be shuffling their offensive line this week, as starting guard Matt McKeown left last game with injury and is listed as doubtful. Miami fans are high on their defense this year and they had a solid outing in their debut holding Ball State to just 13 points despite several three and outs by the offense and a -2 turnover ratio. They figure to do a much better job defending the Gophers ground game than smallish Bowling Green did last week. Expect this game to have a difficult time getting out of the 40's. Play the under.
RAS Official Play: Under 50 1 UNIT |
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UAB at Florida State (-34.5) - 2:00pm Pacific - Game #351-352
Longtime FSU head coach Bobby Bowden said his team has never played as bad as they did in the first half vs Clemson last week. They did perform much better in the second half but could not overcome a 24-3 halftime deficit. The Seminoles cannot wait to get back on the field as they feel they have much to prove on both sides of the ball. New high profile offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher is already under heat from fans but will look to showcase his new offense this week vs a horrible UAB defense in the team's home opener. Junior QB Drew Weatherford should also be inclined to pad his stats after a disappointing opener. Talented backup QB Xavier Lee, who was not far from winning the starting job, will likely join the party as well once the game is out of hand. Meanwhile, the vaunted Seminole defense, who shutout Clemson in the second half last week, has been quoted as saying they will not be satisfied with anything but a shutout this week. They are more than capable of accomplishing that goal with 8 returning starters and plenty of quality depth.
UAB might just be the worst team in Division 1-A this year. Due to injuries and nearly 20 defections the Blazers are playing with just 67 scholarship players, 18 under the NCAA limit. As mentioned last week, first year players are riddled throughout their 2-deep (six freshmen started last week) and they are learning new systems on both offense and defense. Michigan State led UAB 45-3 at halftime and that was without the help of any fluke plays. They were just simply dominated. The Spartans began playing reserves midway through the second quarter and still coasted to a 55-18 win. The Blazers will get another nice paycheck for this trip but not much else. Florida State is 36-22 ATS after a straight up loss under Bowden. Look for the Seminoles to dominate throughout and win by 40+. Give the big number.
RAS Official Play: Florida State -34.5 1 UNIT
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North Texas at SMU (Over 44.5) - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #403-404
SMU has all the makings of an "over" team. Last year their games averaged 51.6ppg (no overtimes) despite playing a freshman QB. This year they have 8 returning starters on offense and a defense that is struggling to overcome key losses. SMU executed very poorly in opener vs Texas Tech with several dropped passes, penalties, and other miscues leading to just a 9 point output after averaging 31.6ppg in last 10 outings a year ago. Dual threat sophomore QB Justin Willis (C-USA freshman of year) will be looking to make amends against his hometown (Denton, TX) school who beat him 24-6 last year. SMU's defense suffered a major blow when starting MLB and leading returning tackler Reggie Carrington opted to leave the team before the season. The defensive line only returned one starter, senior Cory Muse, (played a handful of plays last week, probable Saturday) but he has been slowed by injury. Starting DT Charlie Berry (stinger) is doubtful to play this week. SMU only returned six starters on defense to begin with and have never been anything special. SMU kick returner Jesse Henderson averaged 32 yards a return last week and will be a positive factor in their scoring output.
North Texas first year coach Todd Dodge is implementing a mostly no-huddle spread offense with four wide receivers and a dual threat quarterback. The system figures to extend games and give both teams more plays. In opener vs Oklahoma there were 142 total plays (79 in first half) despite the Sooners running 61% of the time and only throwing three incomplete passes. UNT meanwhile passed on 45 of their 69 plays. The Mean Green's offense was not very effective against OU's stellar defense, but they did show signs of potential and should be more productive against a softer opponent. UNT's defense has experience, but is switching to a new 4-3 scheme for a new defensive coordinator, and were absolutely shredded by Oklahoma in the season opener. The secondary looked particularly vulnerable as they did not break up a single pass in opener. Junior CB Dominique Green, a 10 game starter last year, has disappeared from the depth chart, and Dodge announced more personnel shuffling in the secondary for Saturday. Expect a high scoring affair.
RAS Official Play: Over 44.5 1 UNIT
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Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
RightAngle Sports
Handicapper.net
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