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August 31, 2007
  "Official Plays" Week 1 - Final
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CURRENT SEASON RECORD
Official Plays: 0-0
Early Looks: 0-1
Overall: 0-0 -0.55 UNITS
EARLY LOOKS RECAP
UL Monroe +4 (closed +3.5) LOSS
Michigan State -20 (now -22)
Colorado State +2.5 (unchanged)
Wyoming +4.5 (now +3.5)
Kansas -7.5 (unchanged)
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RAS NCAA Football - "Official Plays" Report - Week 1

About this update: The RAS "Official Play " Report is released each Friday morning. The report will include 1-4 plays with more detailed analysis rated at 1 to 2 UNITS per play. The emphasis of this report is on selectivity and high win percentage.

New for 2007: Every Sunday night report will include "Situational Notes" that note teams with look ahead potential, letdown potential, and coming off BYE weeks.

Money Management: Money management is more important to the success of a sports bettor than picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly.  Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.

*All lines current and widely available as of 7:45am PST on Friday, August 31st, 2007.


RAS "Official Plays" - Week 1
One play this week:

Washington State at Wisconsin (-14) - 12:30pm Pacific - Game #171-172
Wisconsin is coming off a remarkable 12-1 season despite adjusting to a new coaching staff. Reigning Big 10 coach of the year Bret Bielema has his entire staff back, 16 returning starters, and loads of depth to work with. The offense is much more experienced this year with 9 returning starters including four lineman, a deep backfield led by all-star RB PJ Hill, and top four pass catchers led by all-conference tight end Travis Beckum. The running game will be bolstered by the return of fullback Chris Pressley who redshirted with injury last year. All they must do is plug in 5th year senior QB Tyler Donovan to run the show. Donovan completed 63.8% of his passes last year in limited duty, mostly in 3 point win at Iowa and easy win over Buffalo. Donovan knows Wisconsin's system well, having been here four years, and his skills are suited for it. The Badger defense was dominant last year allowing just 12.1ppg and returns seven starters. The front seven is again loaded with talent and will be superb. The secondary returns two solid starters at cornerback and will plug in two new but well thought of safeties. This is a formidable Wisconsin team.

After a 28-7 run from 2001-2003, the Cougars are just 15-19 since under Bill Doba who very likely will be coaching in his final season. Doba preached the word "finish" throughout last season but the team still took a nose dive losing their last three games, all double digit pointspread losses, and missed a bowl game for the third straight year. WSU has a very good QB in senior Alex Brink, but he is incapable of carrying the offense by himself. To be successful Brink needs good pass protection and a strong running game to keep defenses honest. Both will be hard to come by in this matchup. Brink lost his favorite target WR Jason Hill to the NFL and leading returning receiver Brandon Gibson has been hampered by a knee injury. Gibson practiced for the just the first time in two weeks this past Tuesday and is expected to play but is less than 100%. Question marks surround the always suspect Cougar defense. Five of their top seven tacklers graduated, including sack leader Mkristo Bruce. Returning sack leader DE Lance Broadus is out for the first two weeks due to injury. Those two accounted for more than half of WSU's sacks last year. Reserve LB Jason Stripling, who nearly won a starting job, was ruled ineligible earlier this week. Doba plans to start three first year players in the secondary, including a true freshman at cornerback, who have never played a down of football at WSU. Another first year player, JC transfer Ken Dunn will start at linebacker. In a similar spot last year, a much more experienced Cougar defense was burned for 40 points and 484 yards at Auburn. I am expecting similar results Saturday. The Badgers are 18-1 SU and 11-5-1 ATS in home games since 2004. They are also 4-0 ATS in last four season openers. Badgers superior talent and depth with big home field advantage will prove to be way too much for the Cougars. Give the points.

RAS Official Play: Wisconsin -14   1 UNIT


Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.

Good luck!

Cordially,

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