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RAS NCAA Football - "Early Looks" Report - Week 1
About this update: The RAS "Early Looks" Report is released each Sunday Night a few hours after the opening numbers for the following week's games are posted at major offshore sportsbooks. It typically will include 3-6 plays with analysis. This report focuses on taking advantage of early line value.
New for 2007: "Situational Notes" will detail teams with look ahead potential, letdown potential, and coming off BYE weeks.
Money Management: Money management is more important to the success of a sports bettor than picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
*All lines current and widely available as of 11:55am PST on Sunday, August 26th, 2007.
| RAS "Early Looks" - Week 1 - Five Plays |
Tulsa at UL Monroe (+4) - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #141-142 - Thursday
Extremely rare showcase home game for the Warhawks on ESPN2. ULM went just 4-8 last year but had to play eight road games, including trips to Alabama and Arkansas. They lost by a combined four points in narrow losses at Kansas and at Kentucky, and came within 5 points in three other losses. They played very well down the stretch once dual threat 1st year starting QB Lancaster got acclimated. The junior completed 61% of his passes in final four games when ULM averaged 33.25ppg and covered the spread by double digits in each. All 11 starters return on offense led by an outstanding O-line featuring three players who earned spots on preseason award watch lists. ULM's unorthodox ball control offense can be difficult to prepare for. Despite road heavy schedule, ULM's 22.3ppg allowed last year was their lowest since moving to 1-A football in 1994 and six starters are back. The strength of the defense is in the secondary which matches up well vs Tulsa's passing game. The Golden Hurricane are clearly in a rebuilding year with only 10 combined returning starters while breaking in an entirely new coaching staff. Uncertain health of Tulsa starting RB Tennial (Achilles) is likely to leave them with just 3 returning starters on offense and in a vulnerable situation versus ULM's best team in years. Solid spot for a mild upset. Take the points.
RAS Early Look: UL Monroe +4 1/2 UNIT |
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UAB at Michigan State (-20) - 9:00am Pacific - Game #157-158
The Spartans never recovered from an inexplicable 4th quarter collapse vs Notre Dame and greatly underachieved last season. Well regarded head coach Mike Dantonio now takes over the program and a quick turnaround is expected. Touted junior QB Brian Hoyer has been waiting patiently behind Drew Stanton for a chance to play and reportedly has looked sharp in preseason scrimmages. Top RB Ringer returns and an offensive line plagued by injuries last year should be more productive. Defensively, MSU returns 10 of their top 14 tacklers from last season and the coaching staff upgrade should lead to improved numbers. UAB has all the looks of a go against team. The Blazers are breaking in an entirely new coaching staff who is said to be "cleaning house" with many players leaving the program in the offseason. The most recent defection being projected starting WR Courtney Smith who transferred. UAB went 3-9 last year and only returns 7 combined starters. Their two-deep depth chart released on Tuesday includes 11 true freshmen, 4 redshirt freshmen, 12 sophomores, and very few bright spots. A hungry Michigan State team will start the Dantonio era by having their way with UAB. Give the big number before it gets to -21.
RAS Early Look: Michigan State -20 1/2 UNIT |
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Colorado vs Colorado State (+2.5) - 9:00am Pacific - Game #193-194
It is all systems go for the Rams. They return 18 starters overall plus get back all conference RB Kyle Bell who missed last season due to injury. Longtime head coach Sonny Lubick is confident that this is one of his strongest teams ever. Under Lubick CSU is 44-18 with a returning senior QB and they have just that in Caleb Hanie who has 17 career starts. Defensively, the Rams are coming off their best season since 2000 and return 17 of their top 19 tacklers. Unlike recent seasons, CSU has stayed healthy throughout fall camp. Colorado went 2-10 last season despite a +8 turnover ratio (3rd best in Big 12). They are still in transition mode under second year coach Dan Hawkins and likely are still a year away from a winning season. The Buffs will be starting a redshirt freshman at QB and offensive captain Bernard Jackson (starting WR, versatile athlete) is doubtful to play due to academic and personal issues that have kept him away from most of Fall practice. The +2.5 points is valuable in this hard fought rivalry that has been decided by a combined 22 points over last five meetings. CSU surprisingly leads the series 4-3 when played in Denver. Lubick is known for starting well, CSU is an impressive 9-2 ATS in first lined game of the season since 1996. Expect the more experienced and seasoned Rams to emerge victorious.
RAS Early Look: Colorado State +2.5 1/2 UNIT |
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Virginia at Wyoming (+4.5) - 11:00am Pacific - Game #161-162
The Cowboys are coming off a 6-6 season in which they endured injuries, a QB change midseason, two OT losses, and two other losses by 7 or less. Promising redshirt freshman QB Sween started the last seven and led the team to a 5-2 finish with only losses coming on the road vs ranked teams BYU and TCU. Sween is back as is a deep WR group and top RB which should translate into better offensive production. The Cowboys were stellar on defense last year ranking 9th nationally in total yards allowed despite playing 3 OT periods. With five starters back, including a solid group of LB's, coaches are optimistic about not having any drop off. Virginia was embarrassingly bad offensively last year. They figure to be improved this year on paper but offseason wrist surgery on the throwing hand of starting QB Sewell has slowed his development and top WR Ogletree (more than twice the yards and TD's of #2 receiver last year) suffered a knee injury in Spring that has him expected to miss the season. Wyoming outgained Virginia by over 100 yards on the road in last years matchup but lost after missing an extra point in overtime. Considering revenge factor and it being the season opener, this is Wyoming's biggest non-conference home game in at least 7 years. Wyoming is 7-3 ATS as a home dog under Joe Glenn and road teams tend to be hampered by the high altitude here. Virginia has struggled on the road under Groh, they are a miserable 2-9 ATS in last 11 away games. Take the live home dog.
RAS Early Look: Wyoming +4.5 1/2 UNIT |
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Central Michigan at Kansas (-7.5) - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #191-192
Big expectations for Kansas this year as head coach Mangino enters his 6th year and a very favorable schedule lends the opportunity for a breakout season. Expect Kansas to be much more balanced on offense under new OC Ed Warinner thanks to an improved passing game. Soph QB Todd Reesing got his feet wet last year and had an impressive spring and fall to win the starting job. An injury ravaged and inexperienced back seven struggled at defending the pass last season but with nearly everyone back big improvements are promised. The return of star CB Aqib Talib (22 PBU's & 6 INT's in 10 games) and well regarded DC Bill Young (6th year) will make success easier. Central Michigan is coming off their most successful season in at least 13 years thanks in part to a favorable schedule and +2 or more turnovers in five wins. This year they must replace their head coach, both coordinators, and three NFL draft picks from the line of scrimmage alone, not an easy task for a MAC school. Sources indicate as many as 19 Chippewa players underwent surgery in the offseason, forcing 14 to miss Spring drills. This has further slowed the development process and has even more untested players seeing action than expected. CMU went 0-3 SU and 3-0 ATS vs BCS schools last year but all came via backdoor covers as they trailed by at least 21 (vs BC, at Michigan, at Kentucky) at some point in all three games. The Chippewas are only 7-13 ATS as a road dog since 2002. Night game setting in Lawrence will help boost the Jayhawks to a convincing win.
RAS Early Look: Kansas -7.5 1/2 UNIT |
| Situational Notes - Week 1 |
Teams with "look ahead" potential:
Miami - First test of the season comes at Oklahoma in Week 2.
Virginia Tech - First test of the season comes at LSU in Week 2.
NC State - New head coach O'Brien will return to his former school in Week 2 at Boston College.
Boston College - Eagles will host ex-coach O'Brien and NC State in Week 2.
Penn State - Nittany Lions host a long awaited matchup vs Notre Dame in Week 2.
Oklahoma - First test of the season comes vs Miami Fla in Week 2.
TCU - The Horned Frogs will make a highly anticipated trip to Texas in Week 2. First meeting since 1995.
Oregon - Ducks will travel to Michigan in Week 2.
LSU - First test of the season comes vs Virginia Tech in week 2.
Central Florida - Golden Knights have a BYE in week 2, but open a brand new stadium vs Texas in Week 3. |
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Teams with "letdown" potential:
N/A |
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Teams coming off BYE week:
N/A |
Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
| Cordially, |
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© 2007. No part of this newsletter may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means,
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