| CURRENT SEASON RECORD |
| Official Plays: |
5-7 |
| Early Looks: |
15-10 |
| Overall: |
20-17 -0.70 UNITS |
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| EARLY LOOKS RECAP |
Wake Forest +5.5 (now +3)
Maryland +3.5 (unchanged)
Navy -2 (now -2.5)
Click here for write-ups. |
| NEXT E-MAIL UPDATE |
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RAS NCAA Football - "Official Plays" Report - Week 7
About this update: The RAS Official Plays Report will be released before NOON Pacific each Friday covering Saturday's action. There may also be additional reports during the week covering weekday games or early releases of Saturday plays. Always check for the next update time listed in each report. There will typically be 2-3 official plays per week and they are rated between 1-2 UNITS. Selectivity, a high win percentage, and detailed analysis are the focal points of this report.
Money Management: Money management is even more important to the success of a sports bettor than picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
Line Value: It is advised to place wagers as early as possible. Always try to shop for best possible line.
*Lines current as of 12:30am PST on Friday.
| RAS "Official Plays" - Week 7 - Two Plays |
Rutgers at Navy (-2.5) - 10:30am Pacific - Game #329-330
Navy head coach Paul Johnson is doing an incredible job. After winning only three games in three years, the Midshipmen are 31-12 since the start of 2003. Paul Johnson is a great in game coach who always seems to make the just the right adjustments. Navy has scored a touchdown on 5 of 6 opening second half drives this year and have scored on the first possession of the second half in 14 of their last 17 games. This year's Navy team features 16 returning starters which is the most ever in my 15 years of records. Navy did struggle offensively early in the season but senior QB Brian Hampton has stepped up his play in recent weeks. Hampton has three straight 100+ yard rushing games and after completing just 2-for-9 passes in first two games, has gone 20 of 38 since. Navy does not have to pass much anyway as they lead the nation with 350+ rushing yards per game. Navy's only loss of the season came by 1 point in overtime vs Tulsa after missing an extra point. They followed up a crushing win over UConn with a convincing win over a solid Air Force team last week.
Rutgers is coming off a BYE week but they are just 6-17 ATS in last 24 games after a BYE. Head coach Greg Schiano is said to spend a great deal of time recruiting during off weeks. Rutgers is 5-0 and ranked in the top 25 but the toughest opponent they have faced so far is South Florida two weeks ago. That game went down to the wire with USF dropping a pass on a 2 point conversion that would have forced OT and Rutgers benefited from a +2 turnover ratio. Navy will be the only option team Rutgers will play this season and after what happened to Big East counterpart UConn, Big East teams may choose to no longer schedule Navy.
This is a rare opportunity for Navy to play a ranked opponent on their home field. It is also homecoming week so there is no doubt the Midshipmen will be up for this game. Navy lost 31-21 at Rutgers last season but were -3 turnovers for the game. They routed Rutgers 54-21 here two seasons ago and Paul Johnson is an incredible 10-1 ATS in revenge situations. Navy is also 17-3 straight up at home since 2003. Give the small number.
RAS Official Play: Navy -2.5 1 UNIT |
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New Mexico at UNLV (+2.5) - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #395-396
I consider second year head coach Mike Sanford to be a big upgrade from his predecessor John Robinson. Sanford was the OC under Urban Meyer at Utah. UNLV started the season with a visually impressive win over 1-AA Idaho State and followed that up with a close loss at Iowa State, but in that game starting QB Rocky Hinds left in the first half with a sprained knee. Hinds, a well regarded transfer from USC, played in the next three games but was limited in his mobility and was largely ineffective. Nonetheless his numbers have gotten better in each of the past three games and he declared himself 100% healthy this week. Before this season Hinds had not played in a live football game for 3 years so he has also had to shake off some rust. He is eager to show what he can do and this may be a breakout game for him. Sophomore WR Casey Flair has emerged as one of the top receivers in the league, ranking 1st in receiving yardage and 2nd in receptions per game. UNLV ranks second to only BYU among MWC teams in passing yardage. They have moved the ball well at times but it has not shown up on the scoreboard yet. Defensively, UNLV has been below average but taking on the likes of Hawaii, Iowa State, and Nevada in non-conference play has their stats a bit skewed. New Mexico's anemic offense will be a welcome sight. Junior LB Beau Bell (2nd in tackles, tackles for loss in MWC) is one of the best in the West.
Last week New Mexico gained just 190 yards of total offense vs Wyoming, could not take advantage of three first half turnovers from the Cowboys, and failed to hold on to a 10-0 halftime lead. Senior QB Chris Nelson went just 4-for-14 and third string backup Donovan Porterie finished 7-for-17 and was sacked three times. Despite struggling, the redshirt freshman Poterie has been named the starter this week, but head coach Rocky Long did not give him much of a vote of confidence when he said his playing time would be determined by his performance and that senior Chris Nelson would also see action. If the passing game was not bad enough already, starting TE John Mulchrone, third on the team in receiving, is doubtful to play with an ankle injury. New Mexico's defense has been solid but this will be their seventh straight game without a BYE and after the results of the past two week's, they cannot be too excited to play.
UNLV almost won at New Mexico as a +15 dog in the first game of last season. These two teams have gone in different directions since then. UNLV is led by a young coaching staff looking to make names for themselves while New Mexico is clearly in rebuilding mode under veteran coach Rocky Long. The Rebels have a much more talented QB and this is their first conference home game of the season. UNLV is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a conference home dog. Take the points.
RAS Official Play: UNLV +2.5 1 UNIT |
Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
Cordially,
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