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September 29, 2006 "Official Play" Report - Week 5
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CURRENT SEASON RECORD

Official Plays:	4-5
Early Looks:	12-5
Overall:	16-10 +1.75 UNITS

EARLY LOOKS RECAP

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RAS NCAA Football - "Official Plays" Report - Week 5

About This Update: The RAS Official Plays Report will be released before NOON Pacific each Friday covering Saturday's action. There may also be additional reports during the week covering weekday games or early releases of Saturday plays. Always check for the next update time listed in each report. There will typically be 2-3 official plays per week and they are rated between 1-2 UNITS. Selectivity, a high win percentage, and detailed analysis are the focal points of this report.

Paid Subscriber Benefits: Paid subscribers received this report on Thursday night at 11:50pm Pacific well before significant line movement. Subscribe today and be the first to get the RAS plays! Other subscriber benefits include: Sunday Night Early Looks Report, Friday Added Info Report, and all 2 UNIT plays. Click here to subscribe.

Week 4 Recap: Tulsa dominated early on but saw one drive end on downs at the Navy 1 and another on a missed field goal at the Navy 9. The teams traded points for the rest of the game and Tulsa emerged with a one point win in overtime after blocking a Navy extra point. Air Force executed their triple option offense to near perfection in a 31-24 win at Wyoming. The Cowboys got within 7 after a 50 yard fumble return for a touchdown but Air Force was not to be denied and scored on their next two possessions to seal the win. Early looks went 4-0 and we are now in plus units for the season. *Review all previous plays with write-ups on the Records Page of our website.

BettingTalk Forum: The half-time plays will no longer be part of the official service but I will still be posting my own personal second half plays on the www.BettingTalk.com forum when time permits. Visit the site today and join 5900+ other members in the daily handicapping discussions!

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*Lines current as of 11:00pm PST on Thursday. (Paid subscribers get exclusive early delivery of plays.)

RAS "Official Plays" - Week 5 - One Play

San Diego State at San Jose State (+2.5) - 3:00pm Pacific - Game #355-356
Head coach Dick Tomey has won everywhere he has coached and is doing an outstanding job turning around this Spartan football program. San Jose State had been on a woeful 3-22 stretch before winning their final two games last year and starting 2-1 this season. Junior QB Adam Tafralis enters this game with an impressive 75.6% completion percentage through three games. Senior WR James Jones has emerged as one of the top receivers in the pass happy WAC as well as a standout return man. Junior RB Yonus Davis (2nd team WAC last year, 6.2ypc this year) and power back Patrick Perry (6.0ypc) form a potent 1-2 punch. SJSU is the only team with two rushers among the top 10 in the WAC. San Jose State is very young on defense but is getting better with every game in the second year of running Tomey's "eagle-flex" scheme that was made famous at Arizona. Not many teams run this defense so it is always an adjustment for the opposition. The SJSU defense has only allowed one touchdown in their last six quarters of action. Junior LB Matt Castelo is a great leader and JC transfer CB Dwight Lowery has emerged as a shutdown corner. Lowery currently leads the nation in both interceptions and pass break-ups.

San Diego State has struggled with injuries and adjusting to new coaches on both sides of the ball. They started the year with five returning starters on offense but are now without their two stars QB Kevin O'Connell (thumb) and RB Lynell Hamilton (knee). O'Connell was injured in the season opener, and Hamilton was hurt just last week. Both are team captains and Hamilton not only led the team in rushing yardage but in receptions as well. First year coach Chuck Long already had begun to simplify the offensive scheme and will have to even more so this week. New starting QB Darren Mougey actually looked solid off the bench in first game but since becoming a starter the Aztecs have only scored 7 points in two games while averaging just 198 yards of total offense. The SDSU offensive line has been a question mark since day one and they do not have near the talent at receiver that they have had in recent years. Mougey threw 4 interceptions last week vs Utah before leaving with a concussion. Defensively the Aztecs have been just average and have yielded 365 yards per game in last two.

San Jose State's win over Stanford three weeks ago definitely proved me wrong and was huge for the program. They have had a BYE week and an easy win over 1-AA Cal Poly since then and follow this game with another BYE so they will come with everything they have this week. SJSU is already above .500 for the first time since 2000 and a win here could propel them to a 4-1 start (next game vs Utah State) and possible bowl birth. They have won four straight at Spartan Stadium dating back to last season. The only two home losses last year came vs Nevada and vs Hawaii, both by just 7 points. They are a much improved team this year. Expect an outright win for the Spartans.

RAS Official Play: San Jose State +2.5 1 UNIT

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Good luck!

Cordially,

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