| CURRENT SEASON RECORD |
| Official Plays: |
2-5 |
| Early Looks: |
8-5 |
| Overall: |
10-10 -2.25 UNITS |
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| NEXT E-MAIL UPDATE |
| *Next subscriber update (Official Plays) will be on THURSDAY before NOON Pacific. If you do not receive an update by this time, please e-mail us immediately so it can be resent. |
RAS NCAA Football - "Early Looks " Report - Week 3
About this update: The RAS "Early Looks" Report is released each Sunday Night shortly after the opening numbers for the following week's games are posted at major offshore sportsbooks. It typically will include 3-7 plays with analysis. This report focuses on beating potential line moves during the week. All plays are recommended for a 1/2 UNIT.
Money Management: Money management is even more important to the success of a sports bettor than picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
Week 2 Recap: Disappointing losses with Stanford & South Carolina. Stanford scored 34 points in the first half and amazingly was shutout in the second half. South Carolina was shutout for the game. It was just the second time ever a Spurrier coached team has been shutout. We did catch a break in the BYU game as the teams were brought back on the field with six minutes to play and BYU leading 42-17 after a 1 hour rain/lightning delay. I was worried we may have an easy win taken from us like in the UNLV/Wisconsin power outage several years back. Games are not considered official unless 55 minutes have been completed.
*Lines current as of 7:20pm PST on Sunday.
| RAS "Early Looks " - Week 3 - Four Plays |
Fresno State at Washington (+3.5) - 12:30pm Pacific - Game #351-352
From 2001-2004, the Huskies had four straight top 30 recruiting classes. They have had some defections but there is still plenty of talent here. They think they can get to a bowl game this year and a win here is almost a must if they are going to achieve that goal. Washington played very well for about 2 1/2 quarters at #15 Oklahoma last week. The game was tied 13-13 at the half and their were several positives to take from the loss. Senior Isiah Stanback is one of the most athletic QB's in the country and he will be looking to rebound from a sub-par outing vs the Sooners. Fresno State is coming off a tough 31-24 loss at home to Oregon on Saturday. It was described as an "extremely physical game" with at least four Bulldog players leaving the game at some point. Some returned, others including starting DE Tyler Clutts, did not. It was also an emotionally draining loss as Fresno had been sky high for the ESPN2 televised game. The Ducks scored the go ahead touchdown on a fake field goal attempt late in the 4th quarter and the loss ruins FSU's dream of an undefeated season and BCS bid. Fresno State sophomore QB Brandstater took several hard hits and now must make his first career start on the road. Good spot for the Huskies to pull off a minor upset.
RAS Early Look: Washington +3.5 1/2 UNIT |
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Ole Miss at Kentucky (-3) - 3:00pm Pacific - Game #353-354
Kentucky was decimated with injuries last year and struggled to a 3-8 record. Head coach Rich Brooks is in his fourth season here and this is a make or break year for him. The Wildcats return 9 starters on offense, including good looking junior QB Andre Woodson. Big play WR Keenan Burton is back after only playing in one game last year and sophomore Dicky Lyons (4 TD's in first 2 games) has emerged as an additional pass catching threat. RB Rafeal Little was second team SEC last year and TE Jacob Tamme is above average. The offensive line is improved with all 5 starters back. Seven starters are back on defense and they should at least be better than last year. Kentucky rebounded from opening loss at Louisville with a big 41-7 confidence boosting win over Texas State last week. Ole Miss upgraded their QB position with transfer Brent Shaeffer, but have had only mixed results so far. Shaeffer has completed just 44.4% of his passes with 3 interceptions in two games. He isn't getting much help from the offensive line or a very inexperienced group of wide outs. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss has an entirely new defensive line and injury woes have taken away some of the little returning experience they had. The Rebels were simply not competitive last week at Missouri. They lost 34-7 and were outgained by 300+ yards. Kentucky has not won an SEC opener in 18 years and have a prime opportunity to do so in this spot.
RAS Early Look: Kentucky -3 1/2 UNIT |
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Arizona State (-9.5) at Colorado - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #369-370
All the talk in Tempe has switched from the departure of senior QB Sam Keller to the play of the Sun Devil defense. They were dominant in 52-21 thrashing of Nevada last Saturday night. Noted defensive coordinator Bill Miller (previous stops at Miami, Fla & Florida) is now in his second year here and improvement is becoming more and more evident. The defensive line is said to be as deep as it ever has been in six years under Dirk Koetter and top DE Loren Howard (remains questionable this week) still has yet to play. Nevada's first offensive points came just before halftime with ASU already up by 24. Speaking of offense, ASU averaged 36.8ppg last year and return 8 starters. QB Carpenter completed 68.4% of his passes last year with an impressive 17 to 2 ratio. He has a wide array of weapons to choose from. New CU head coach Dan Hawkins did not inherit much talent at the skill positions and his team has struggled offensively averaging less than 200 yards of offense in first two games. Quarterbacks Bernard Jackson and James Cox have rotated playing time but neither has had much success. Only 9 passes were completed vs CSU last week and the week before they lost to 1-AA foe Montana State. Hawkins was a former assistant under ASU head coach Dirk Koetter at Boise State and CU's new offensive coordinator, Mike Helfrich has been QB's coach at ASU the past four years. Koetter generally runs up the score anyway, but this is a statement game for both him and ASU.
RAS Early Look: Arizona State -9.5 1/2 UNIT |
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Texas Tech (-2) at TCU - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #357-358
The Red Raiders are coming off an impressive overtime road win at UTEP and in my estimation have a slightly easier task in this matchup. New starter sophomore QB Graham Harrell clearly has a firm grasp of the offense and there will be no dropoff in production as some had feared. Harrell has completed 72.9% of his passes through two games and has looked good doing so. The offensive line is improved and so far has allowed just one sack. Texas Tech's defense started the season with high expectations and held SMU to just 3 points in the opener. They took a step back last week allowing 35 points to a very good UTEP offense, but should improve off that game and as a whole still has potential to be even better than last year. TCU was one of the luckiest teams in the nation last year. Their +21 turnover ratio was tied for best in the country. Starting QB Jeff Ballard is not an impressive thrower, they are breaking in four new offensive line starters, and must replace standout WR Cory Rodgers. Defensively TCU lost five starters, three all conference players from their secondary alone, which does not bode well against a pass happy team. TCU has had trouble with the Texas Tech spread offense in recent years. They gave up 70 points to Texas Tech in 2004 and 50 points to BYU (similar system) last year. The Horned Frogs were fortunate to escape with a win at Baylor in the season opener. Baylor basically controled the game for 3 quarters but several miscues throughout the game cost them. Look for the Red Raiders to move to 3-0.
RAS Early Look: Texas Tech -2 1/2 UNIT |
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Colorado State (+3) at Nevada - 6:00pm Pacific - Game #383-384
CSU head coach Sonny Lubick has always prioritized defense and was not happy seeing his teams points per game allowed average rise in five straight seasons. The Rams rededicated themselves on that side of the ball in the offseason, return 7 defensive starters, and get back senior leader Ben Stratton (#1 tackler in 2004) who missed all of last year with an injury. So far the results have been positive as they dominated Colorado last week holding the Buffs to 146 total yards. On offense new QB junior Caleb Hanie had 5 career starts even before this season and completed 20-for-23 vs CU. Two of his three incompletions were throwaways. Junior WR Johnny Walker and TE/HB Kory Sperry are all-conference quality performers. The Rams lost starting RB Kyle Bell for the season to injury but have capable replacements. CSU this week may get back center Tim Walter and WR Justin Osborn who both missed last game with injury. Nevada looked awful in blowout loss at Arizona State last week. They have not made much progress in improving their team speed on defense. Offensively all of Nevada's numbers are down from last year through the first two games and another tough defense awaits. The Mountain West continues to be an underrated conference. MWC teams have gone 8-3 ATS in first two weeks of the season. CSU showed their superiority in 42-21 win over Nevada last year. Take the points.
RAS Early Look: Colorado State +3 1/2 UNIT |
Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
| Cordially, |
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