| CURRENT SEASON RECORD |
| Official Plays: |
0-2 |
| Early Looks: |
3-2 |
| Overall: |
3-4 -1.80 UNITS |
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| EARLY LOOKS RECAP |
Oregon State +9 L
Cincinnati +9.5 (now +7.5)
BYU -6 (now -4)
Oregon -5.5 (now -4)
Click here for write-ups.
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| NEXT E-MAIL UPDATE |
| *Next subscriber update (Added Info Report) will be on FRIDAY before 8:00pm Pacific. If you do not receive an update by this time, please e-mail us immediately so it can be resent. |
RAS NCAA Football - "Official Plays" Report - Week 2
About this update: The RAS Official Plays Report will be released before NOON Pacific each Friday covering Saturday's action. There may also be additional reports during the week covering weekday games or early releases of Saturday plays. Always check for the next update time listed in each report. There will typically be 2-3 official plays per week and they are rated between 1-2 UNITS. Selectivity, a high win percentage, and detailed analysis are the focal points of this report.
Write your Senators: The U.S. Senate will be reviewing and possibly voting on a bill to ban Internet Gambling in the coming weeks. Be sure to contact the Senators in your state to let them know how you feel about this bill! Although not specifically catering to sports betting, The Poker Players Alliance (www.pokerplayersalliance.org) is the biggest and most well organized advocate for players rights to gamble online. There you can find informative articles and the best ways to contact Senators from your state. Phone calls and e-mails are better than nothing, but an original written letter is most powerful. Most lawmakers, including those who oppose the bill, do not see it as a priority. It is our job to make it one.
Money Management: Money management is even more important to the success of a sports bettor than picking winners. Please practice sound money management and always wager responsibly. Win streaks and losing streaks will occur, do not overreact to either.
*Lines current as of 9:30am PST on Friday.
| RAS "Official Plays" - Week 2 - Three Plays |
Tulsa at BYU (-4) - 1:00pm Pacific - Game #145-146
BYU won 5 of their final 7 regular season games last year with the only losses coming at Notre Dame and vs Utah in overtime. They went on to play well vs Cal in the Las Vegas bowl racking up 446 yards only to lose by 7 despite -2 turnovers. This year they are only better with a veteran offense and much improved defense. Former Texas Tech assistant Robert Anae installed the Red Raider spread offense last year and the unit averaged 36.0ppg in the final eight games including the bowl. Eight starters are back including senior QB John Beck, top RB Curtis Brown, and two talented TE's. The offensive line is deep and experienced. This BYU offense can move the ball on just about anyone. They were held to only 13 points in the opener at Arizona, but started slowly, missed two field goals, lost two fumbles, and had several untimely penalties including one that negated a touchdown. Additionally, the Arizona secondary is one of the best in the country and their defensive unit as a whole is well above average. Speaking of defense, BYU had one of their best defensive performances this decade as they held the Wildcats to just 253 total yards. BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall is an accomplished defensive coordinator and was embarrassed by the poor performance on that side of the ball last year. He brought it former 49ers assistant Jaime Hill to take over the secondary and the results have been positive from day one. The secondary will get another boost this week with the return of projected starter Cole Miyahara from a one game suspension. If BYU's defense continues to improve the Cougars will be a strong contender for the MWC title.
The secret is out on Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games. Oddsmakers can be slow to adjust but by now have definitely caught on. At this point there is likely more value in playing against them than there is playing on them. Bettors have even driven this line down two points during the week. C-USA was bad last year as evidenced by their 7-21 non-conference record vs Division 1-A opponents. Tulsa took advantage by going 6-2 in league play and winning the conference championship game over UCF, a team who went 0-11 the year prior. In addition to a highly suspect schedule, much of Tulsa's success can be attributed to their +19 turnover ratio which was third highest in the nation last season.
BYU is certain to have gotten more out of their season opening loss at Arizona than Tulsa did in their season opening win over Division I-AA Stephen F. Austin. This is a big game for a hungry BYU team who is also 7-3 ATS in last 10 home openers. The Mountain West Conference is superior to C-USA and the Cougars figure to have a big advantage playing at home in the high altitude. The Cougar offense will get rolling this week. Give the points.
RAS Official Play: BYU -4 1 UNIT |
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Stanford (-9.5) at San Jose State - 3:00pm Pacific - Game #153-154
I am looking for Stanford to rebound from last week's debacle at Oregon. They were embarrassed 48-10. Reports indicate Tuesday's practice was the hardest ever since the arrival of Walt Harris which was followed by the best practice ever on Wednesday. Stanford actually finished 4-4 in Pac-10 play last year and that easily could have been 5-3 if not for a miracle UCLA comeback. They have 10 starters back on offense led by a talented 5th year senior QB in Trent Edwards. Senor WR Mark Bradford has been rejoined by 6-7 WR Evan Moore who was lost for the season with a broken leg in the first game last year. These two will provide very difficult matchups for the undersized SJSU defensive backs. Stanford's running game was a big disappointment in week 1 but true freshman RB Toby Gerhart showed positive signs in the second half and he is expected to get most of the carries this week. Stanford will find much more success on the ground against the porous SJSU run defense. Defensively, Stanford is young and battling some injury woes but is still plenty capable of keeping SJSU under wraps.
Dick Tomey has the SJSU program headed in the right direction but right now he lacks the talent and experience to be competitive with a Pac-10 team. San Jose State is coming off a 35-29 loss at Washington, but that score is a bit misleading because of 3 Washington turnovers that helped to keep the game close. The Spartan defense allowed 300 rushing yards and 468 total yards to a less than spectacular Husky offense. After losing starting defensive tackle Freddy McCutcheon to a knee injury before the start of the season, SJSU is extremely young on the defensive line. There are four new starters and at times last week they were playing with all freshman on the line. It is no surprise that they allowed 7.3 yards per carry and that is when they they were able to focus on the run. Today they will face a much more balanced offense. QB Adam Tafralis had a solid game at Washington but he actually barely won the starting job in fall camp thanks to an injury to JC transfer Sean Flynn. SJSU had almost no success running the ball (1.7 yards per carry) last week and again will have to throw the ball around to try to keep close.
San Jose State actually beat Stanford three straight times from 1998-2000. Since than Stanford has won four straight times by an average margin of 31.25 points. Stanford was shocked by Division 1-AA UC Davis last year so coaches have gone the extra mile this week to make sure this game is not overlooked. This is listed as a San Jose State home game but it is actually a part of Stanford's season ticket package and the Cardinal control 18,000 of the 30,000 available tickets. It is only a 15 minute drive from the Stanford campus. Under Walt Harris, Stanford has performed best off a straight up loss (4-1 ATS) and on the road (4-1-1 ATS). Stanford badly needs a big win here to boost their confidence and offensively should put up big numbers. Anything less than a double digit win will be a disappointment. Give the points.
RAS Official Play: Stanford -9.5 1 UNIT |
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Georgia at South Carolina (+3) - 4:45pm Pacific - Game #175-176
Despite playing in a very hostile environment and losing starting QB Blake Mitchell to injury for a large portion of the 1st half, South Carolina was still able to beat Mississippi State convincingly 15-0 in the opener. Steve Spurrier is now in his second year at South Carolina and has always been a great ATS coach. When you combine Spurrier's offensive genius with a solid defense it is a great recipe for success. Spurrier's offense returns 7 starters including starting QB Blake Mitchell, and two excellent wide receivers in Syvelle Newton and Sidney Rice. Physical RB Cory Boyd is back from a redshirt year and ran hard in the opener. Spurrier has been working to upgrade his offensive line since day 1 and they are starting to see some improvement there. The defense is what concerned most fans in the offseason but the Gamecocks were very impressive if not dominant vs Mississippi State. They held the Bulldogs to just 161 yards and 0 points in the season opener.
Only 9 teams lost more quality talent in the NFL draft than Georgia. In recent years the Bulldogs have been able to reload but this year will be more difficult as they have been hit at several key positions: QB, offensive line, defensive line, and secondary. New starting QB Joe Tereshinksi went just 13-for-30 last year filling in for injured starter D.J. Shockley and last week went just 7-for-17 vs Division 1-AA foe Western Kentucky. His ability remains suspect and fans are already lobbying for true freshman Matt Stafford to take over. Three of the top four pass catchers from last season have departed. The offensive line lost 3 starters including All-American Max Jean-Giles and returning all-conference starter Daniel Inman is serving a two game suspension and will not play. The Bulldogs only have 6 scholarship offensive lineman available for this game. Defensively, Georgia lost three starters on the defensive line and three NFL draft picks from their secondary alone. CB & Punt Returner Thomas Flowers remains suspended this week.
South Carolina has two big advantages in this matchup as they have already played a competitive game and it was on Thursday which gives them two extra days of preparation. The Gamecocks have won six straight SEC games dating back to last season and this is a golden opportunity for them to go to 2-0 in SEC play for the first time in forever. Last year they took Georgia down to the wire losing by just 2 despite several bad breaks. That was on the road and just their second game in a new system. Today they get the Bulldogs at home and are in a great position for an outright win. Take the points.
RAS Official Play: South Carolina +3 1 UNIT |
Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments.
Good luck!
| Cordially, |
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